Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Mar 22 · 16:15 · Rennes vs Metz
Likeliest: Rennes win · 60%
We make it 61% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rennes60%72%−11
OursMarket
Draw20%18%+2
OursMarket
Metz20%10%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 62% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 50% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 90% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 28% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 82% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 87% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rennes
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Mar 15 · v LOSC Lille (H)1-2
- Mar 8 · at Nice (A)4-0
- Feb 28 · v Toulouse (H)1-0
- Feb 22 · at Auxerre (A)3-0
- Feb 13 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)3-1
Metz
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Mar 15 · v Toulouse (H)3-4
- Mar 8 · at Lens (A)0-3
- Mar 1 · v Brest (H)0-1
- Feb 21 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)0-3
- Feb 15 · v Auxerre (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Rennes | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 0-1-9 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 2.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.