Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Nov 22 · 18:00 · Rennes vs Monaco
Likeliest: Rennes win · 40%
We make it 72% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 60%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rennes40%35%+4
OursMarket
Draw23%26%−3
OursMarket
Monaco37%38%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 60% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 62% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 65% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 48% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rennes
DrawLossDrawWinWin
- Nov 7 · at Paris (A)1-0
- Nov 2 · v Strasbourg (H)4-1
- Oct 29 · at Toulouse (A)2-2
- Oct 26 · v Nice (H)1-2
- Oct 19 · v Auxerre (H)2-2
Monaco
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Nov 8 · v Lens (H)1-4
- Nov 4 · at Bodø / Glimt (A)1-0
- Nov 1 · v Paris (H)0-1
- Oct 29 · at Nantes (A)5-3
- Oct 25 · v Toulouse (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Rennes | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-6-1 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.