Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Apr 26 · 15:15 · Rennes vs Nantes
Likeliest: Rennes win · 57%
We make it 49% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rennes57%67%−10
OursMarket
Draw23%20%+3
OursMarket
Nantes20%13%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 58% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 87% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 33% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 80% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 83% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rennes
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Apr 19 · at Strasbourg (A)3-0
- Apr 11 · v Angers SCO (H)2-1
- Apr 4 · at Brest (A)4-3
- Mar 22 · v Metz (H)0-0
- Mar 15 · v LOSC Lille (H)1-2
Nantes
LossDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Apr 22 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)0-3
- Apr 19 · v Brest (H)1-1
- Apr 11 · at Auxerre (A)0-0
- Apr 5 · at Metz (A)0-0
- Mar 22 · v Strasbourg (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Rennes | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.