Ligue 1 (France) · Fri, Feb 13 · 18:00 · Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain
Likeliest: Paris Saint Germain win · 38%
A 24% draw. The market says 18%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rennes37%14%+23
OursMarket
Draw24%18%+6
OursMarket
Paris Saint Germain38%68%−30
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 68% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 60% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 32% | +30 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 86% | −23 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 82% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 17% | +32 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rennes
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Feb 7 · at Lens (A)1-3
- Feb 3 · at Olympique Marseille (A)0-3
- Jan 31 · at Monaco (A)0-4
- Jan 24 · v Lorient (H)0-2
- Jan 18 · v Le Havre (H)1-1
Paris Saint Germain
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Feb 8 · v Olympique Marseille (H)5-0
- Feb 1 · at Strasbourg (A)2-1
- Jan 28 · v Newcastle United (H)1-1
- Jan 23 · at Auxerre (A)1-0
- Jan 20 · at Sporting CP (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Rennes | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.