Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Feb 28 · 16:00 · Rennes vs Toulouse
Likeliest: Rennes win · 41%
We make it 67% for both teams to score. The market says 54%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rennes41%48%−6
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
Toulouse36%25%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 51% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 54% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 75% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 52% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 65% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rennes
LossLossLossWinWin
- Feb 22 · at Auxerre (A)3-0
- Feb 13 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)3-1
- Feb 7 · at Lens (A)1-3
- Feb 3 · at Olympique Marseille (A)0-3
- Jan 31 · at Monaco (A)0-4
Toulouse
DrawWinLossLossDraw
- Feb 21 · v Paris (H)1-1
- Feb 15 · at Le Havre (A)1-2
- Feb 8 · at Angers SCO (A)0-1
- Feb 4 · v Amiens SC (H)1-0
- Feb 1 · v Auxerre (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Rennes | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.