Challenger Pro League (Belgium) · Sun, Oct 25 · 18:15 · RFC Liège vs Patro Eisden Maasmechelen
Likeliest: Patro Eisden Maasmechelen win · 39%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
RFC Liège33%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
Patro Eisden Maasmechelen39%38%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 58% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 48% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RFC Liège
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at RAAL La Louvière (A)0-4
- Oct 10 · at K. Beerschot V.A. (A)1-5
- Sep 27 · v KVK Wellen (H)4-1
- Sep 19 · at KAS Eupen (A)1-3
- Sep 13 · v Club NXT U23 (H)4-4
Patro Eisden Maasmechelen
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 16 · at KVC Westerlo (A)0-2
- Oct 11 · v Jong KRC Genk U23 (H)1-0
- Sep 26 · at Sportkring Roeselare (A)2-1
- Sep 20 · at FCV Dender (A)0-1
- Sep 13 · v KAS Eupen (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | RFC Liège | Patro Eisden Maasmechelen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 3-0-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.5 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.