Challenger Pro League (Belgium) · Sun, Aug 30 · 17:15 · RFC Seraing vs Koninklijke Lierse Sportkring
Likeliest: RFC Seraing win · 46%
We make it 68% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
RFC Seraing46%40%+6
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−1
OursMarket
Koninklijke Lierse Sportkring28%33%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 51% | +17 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 67% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 60% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 55% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RFC Seraing
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Aug 22 · at Club NXT U23 (A)2-3
- Aug 14 · v KSC Lokeren-Temse (H)0-2
- Apr 17 · v SK Beveren (H)1-2
- Apr 10 · at KSC Lokeren (A)1-1
- Apr 5 · v Patro Eisden Maasmechelen (H)2-0
Koninklijke Lierse Sportkring
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Aug 22 · v Patro Eisden Maasmechelen (H)2-1
- Aug 15 · at Royal Excelsior Virton (A)0-3
- Apr 17 · v KSC Lokeren (H)1-1
- Apr 11 · at OC Charleroi (A)1-0
- Apr 4 · v Royal Francs Borains (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | RFC Seraing | Koninklijke Lierse Sportkring |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.