USL Championship (USA) · Sat, Oct 17 · 23:30 · Rhode Island FC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Likeliest: Rhode Island FC win · 51%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rhode Island FC51%52%0
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+2
OursMarket
Pittsburgh Riverhounds19%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 41% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 44% | 42% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 48% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 71% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rhode Island FC
LossWinWinLossWin
- Oct 14 · v Loudoun United FC (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · at Detroit City FC (A)0-1
- Oct 3 · at Brooklyn FC (A)3-1
- Sep 30 · v Indy Eleven (H)1-0
- Sep 26 · at Charleston Battery (A)0-2
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
DrawWinLossLossWin
- Oct 10 · v Hartford Athletic (H)2-1
- Sep 27 · at Orange County SC (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · at Detroit City FC (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · v Loudoun United FC (H)1-0
- Sep 5 · at Miami FC (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Rhode Island FC | Pittsburgh Riverhounds |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-1 | 2-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.