Premier Division (South Africa) · Tue, Oct 13 · 17:30 · Richards Bay FC vs Mamelodi Sundowns
Likeliest: Mamelodi Sundowns win · 69%
Likely score: 0–2
A tight one: we make it 69% for the away win. The market says 65%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Richards Bay FC9%12%−4
OursMarket
Draw23%22%0
OursMarket
Mamelodi Sundowns69%65%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 44% | 42% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 31% | 35% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 91% | 88% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 11% | 16% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 0.7 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Richards Bay FC
DrawDrawLossLossLoss
- Sep 19 · v Sekhukhune United (H)2-3
- Sep 13 · at Milford FC (A)0-5
- Sep 4 · v AmaZulu FC (H)1-2
- Aug 26 · v Kaizer Chiefs (H)2-2
- Aug 15 · at Durban City FC (A)1-1
Mamelodi Sundowns
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 19 · v Al-Ahli (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Chippa United (A)1-1
- Sep 9 · v Siwelele FC (H)3-0
- Sep 6 · at Lamontville Golden Arrows (A)2-1
- Sep 2 · v Milford FC (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Richards Bay FC | Mamelodi Sundowns |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-5-5 | 7-3-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | 4-5-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.