USL League One (USA) · Sat, Oct 17 · 22:00 · Richmond Kickers vs Corpus Christi FC
Likeliest: Corpus Christi FC win · 45%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 45% for the away win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Richmond Kickers27%31%−4
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Corpus Christi FC45%43%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 57% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 69% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 42% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Richmond Kickers
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 10 · at Sarasota Paradise (A)2-3
- Oct 7 · at FC Naples (A)0-2
- Oct 3 · v One Knoxville SC (H)3-2
- Sep 26 · at New York Cosmos (A)2-3
- Sep 19 · v Charlotte Independence (H)1-2
Corpus Christi FC
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 11 · v FC Naples (H)0-1
- Oct 8 · v Fort Wayne FC (H)1-3
- Oct 3 · at Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (A)0-3
- Sep 27 · v AC Boise (H)2-1
- Sep 16 · at Greenville Triumph SC (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Richmond Kickers | Corpus Christi FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 3-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.