Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 15 · 16:45 · Riga FC vs Kairat
Likeliest: Riga FC win · 51%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Riga FC51%51%0
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Kairat22%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 51% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 69% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Riga FC
LossWinDrawDrawWin
- Aug 27 · v Klaksvíkar Ítróttarfelag (H)2-1
- Aug 20 · at Klaksvíkar Ítróttarfelag (A)0-0
- Aug 13 · at ETO FC Győr (A)1-1
- Aug 6 · v ETO FC Győr (H)1-0
- Jul 28 · v FK Vardar Skopje (H)1-2
Kairat
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Aug 27 · at RSC Anderlecht (A)0-3
- Aug 20 · v RSC Anderlecht (H)0-3
- Aug 11 · v Levski Sofia (H)0-1
- Aug 4 · at Levski Sofia (A)0-1
- Jul 28 · v Omonia Nicosia (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Riga FC | Kairat |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-2 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.