Liga Portugal (Portugal) · Sun, Oct 11 · 14:30 · Rio Ave vs CD Nacional
Likeliest: Rio Ave win · 39%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rio Ave39%41%−2
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
CD Nacional30%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 45% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rio Ave
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Sep 19 · at FC Alverca (A)0-1
- Sep 14 · v CF Estrela Amadora (H)3-3
- Sep 6 · at Santa Clara (A)0-4
- Aug 28 · v Sporting (H)0-4
- Aug 22 · at Estoril Praia (A)2-0
CD Nacional
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 19 · v Famalicão (H)0-4
- Sep 12 · v FC Alverca (H)1-3
- Sep 5 · at Sporting (A)0-2
- Aug 30 · v CF Estrela Amadora (H)2-3
- Aug 23 · at Vitória SC (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Rio Ave | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 1-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 57% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 14% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-5 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.