Liga Portugal (Portugal) · Mon, Sep 14 · 17:45 · Rio Ave vs CF Estrela Amadora
Likeliest: CF Estrela Amadora win · 38%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rio Ave31%33%−2
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
CF Estrela Amadora38%37%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 45% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 52% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 67% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 47% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rio Ave
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Sep 6 · at Santa Clara (A)0-4
- Aug 28 · v Sporting (H)0-4
- Aug 22 · at Estoril Praia (A)2-0
- Aug 15 · v FC Porto (H)0-2
- Aug 9 · at Gil Vicente (A)0-1
CF Estrela Amadora
DrawDrawWinDrawWin
- Sep 10 · v Sporting Braga (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · v Famalicão (H)2-2
- Aug 30 · at CD Nacional (A)3-2
- Aug 15 · at FC Alverca (A)2-2
- Aug 8 · v Sporting (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Rio Ave | CF Estrela Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-6 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.