Liga Portugal (Portugal) · Sun, Oct 25 · 18:00 · Rio Ave vs Famalicão
Likeliest: Famalicão win · 49%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 49% for the away win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rio Ave21%25%−4
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Famalicão49%46%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 79% | 75% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 30% | 35% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rio Ave
LossDrawLossWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Louletano DC (A)1-0
- Oct 11 · v CD Nacional (H)3-2
- Sep 19 · at FC Alverca (A)0-1
- Sep 14 · v CF Estrela Amadora (H)3-3
- Sep 6 · at Santa Clara (A)0-4
Famalicão
DrawDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 18 · at USC Paredes (A)0-1
- Oct 12 · v FC Alverca (H)1-4
- Sep 19 · at CD Nacional (A)4-0
- Sep 13 · v Sporting (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at CF Estrela Amadora (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Rio Ave | Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.