Primera A (Colombia) · Sun, Oct 18 · 19:00 · Rionegro Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima
Likeliest: Deportes Tolima win · 36%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 36% for the away win. The market says 35%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rionegro Águilas Doradas32%35%−3
OursMarket
Draw32%30%+3
OursMarket
Deportes Tolima36%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 42% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 70% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 50% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rionegro Águilas Doradas
LossLossWinDrawDraw
- Oct 13 · at Atlético Bucaramanga (A)1-1
- Oct 9 · at Alianza Valledupar FC (A)2-2
- Oct 3 · v Jaguares de Córdoba (H)2-0
- Sep 28 · at Deportivo Cali (A)0-2
- Sep 24 · at América de Cali (A)0-1
Deportes Tolima
DrawDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 11 · at Jaguares de Córdoba (A)2-3
- Oct 8 · at Atlético Nacional (A)0-0
- Oct 3 · v Boyacá Chicó FC (H)0-0
- Sep 27 · at Fortaleza CEIF (A)2-2
- Sep 20 · v América de Cali (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Rionegro Águilas Doradas | Deportes Tolima |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-6-3 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-0 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.