Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Tue, Nov 3 · 22:00 · River Plate Reserve vs Tigre Reserve
Likeliest: River Plate Reserve win · 69%
Likely scores: 2–0 15% · 1–0 10% · 1–1 10%
A tight one: we make it 69% for the home win. The market says 66%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
River Plate Reserve69%66%+3
OursMarket
Draw19%21%−2
OursMarket
Tigre Reserve12%14%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 86% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 31% | 34% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 79% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.7 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
River Plate Reserve
WinDrawLossDrawWin
- Oct 28 · at San Lorenzo Reserve (A)3-0
- Oct 21 · v Vélez Sarsfield Reserve (H)1-1
- Oct 13 · at Instituto AC Cordoba Reserves (A)2-3
- Oct 6 · at Racing Reserve (A)2-2
- Oct 1 · v Sarmiento Reserve (H)1-0
Tigre Reserve
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 28 · v Racing Reserve (H)1-3
- Oct 20 · at Sarmiento Reserve (A)1-1
- Oct 14 · v Argentinos Juniors Reserve (H)0-1
- Oct 7 · at Aldosivi Reserve (A)0-1
- Sep 29 · v Gimnasia y Esgrima Reserve (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | River Plate Reserve | Tigre Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-6-1 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-0 | 1-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.