Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Wed, Oct 21 · 22:00 · River Plate Reserve vs Vélez Sarsfield Reserve
Likeliest: River Plate Reserve win · 36%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 36% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
River Plate Reserve36%——
OursMarket
Draw34%——
OursMarket
Vélez Sarsfield Reserve30%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 45% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 66% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | — | — |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
River Plate Reserve
DrawDrawWinDrawLoss
- Oct 13 · at Instituto AC Cordoba Reserves (A)2-3
- Oct 6 · at Racing Reserve (A)2-2
- Oct 1 · v Sarmiento Reserve (H)1-0
- Sep 25 · v Boca Juniors Reserve (H)0-0
- Sep 15 · at Argentinos Juniors Reserve (A)0-0
Vélez Sarsfield Reserve
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 15 · v Racing Reserve (H)4-0
- Oct 8 · at Sarmiento Reserve (A)1-0
- Oct 1 · v Argentinos Juniors Reserve (H)1-1
- Sep 22 · v Ferro Carril Oeste Reserve (H)4-0
- Sep 15 · at Aldosivi Reserve (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | River Plate Reserve | Vélez Sarsfield Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-6-1 | 6-4-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 80% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-0 | 2-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.