Liga Profesional de Fútbol (Argentina) · Sun, Oct 11 · 00:30 · River Plate vs Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
Likeliest: River Plate win · 81%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 81% for the home win. The market says 78%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
River Plate81%78%+2
OursMarket
Draw15%16%−1
OursMarket
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto5%6%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 51% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 32% | 31% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 96% | 94% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 19% | 22% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 85% | 84% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 95% | 93% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 0.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
River Plate
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 19 · v Huracán (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Atlético Tucumán (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · v Independiente Rivadavia (H)3-1
- Aug 30 · at Banfield (A)3-2
- Aug 27 · v Independiente Santa Fe (H)1-1
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 5 · v Racing Club (H)1-2
- Sep 20 · at Belgrano (A)1-2
- Sep 15 · at Instituto De Córdoba (A)1-2
- Sep 4 · v Sarmiento (H)0-2
- Aug 29 · at Huracán (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | River Plate | Estudiantes de Río Cuarto |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 0-3-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 0-2-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.