Liga Profesional de Fútbol (Argentina) · Sun, Oct 25 · 22:15 · River Plate vs Racing Club
Likeliest: River Plate win · 67%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 67% for the home win. The market says 64%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
River Plate67%64%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Racing Club11%13%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 49% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 47% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 87% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 36% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 86% | 83% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
River Plate
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 18 · at Belgrano (A)3-0
- Oct 14 · at Sarmiento (A)1-1
- Oct 11 · v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · v Huracán (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Atlético Tucumán (A)2-1
Racing Club
WinLossWinLossDraw
- Oct 18 · v CA Independiente (H)1-1
- Oct 11 · v Belgrano (H)0-2
- Oct 5 · at Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (A)2-1
- Sep 27 · v Boca Juniors (H)2-3
- Sep 19 · v Sarmiento (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | River Plate | Racing Club |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.