Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Aug 14 · 18:00 · RKC Waalwijk vs FC Dordrecht
Likeliest: RKC Waalwijk win · 70%
A 70% home win. The market says 51%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
RKC Waalwijk70%51%+19
OursMarket
Draw17%24%−7
OursMarket
FC Dordrecht13%24%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 61% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 61% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 76% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 30% | 49% | −19 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 76% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 68% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RKC Waalwijk
DrawWinLossWinDraw
- Aug 7 · at Vitesse (A)1-1
- Apr 24 · v Jong PSV (H)4-1
- Apr 17 · at ADO Den Haag (A)1-5
- Apr 10 · v FC Emmen (H)5-0
- Apr 6 · at Helmond Sport (A)2-2
FC Dordrecht
DrawWinLossLossWin
- Aug 7 · v Jong Ajax (H)2-1
- Apr 24 · v Willem II (H)1-2
- Apr 17 · at Almere City (A)1-4
- Apr 12 · v ADO Den Haag (H)1-0
- Apr 6 · at SC Cambuur (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | RKC Waalwijk | FC Dordrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.