Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Apr 10 · 18:00 · RKC Waalwijk vs FC Emmen
Likeliest: RKC Waalwijk win · 60%
We make it 38% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 34%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
RKC Waalwijk60%56%+4
OursMarket
Draw20%22%−2
OursMarket
FC Emmen20%22%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 66% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 78% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 44% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 78% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 72% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RKC Waalwijk
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Apr 6 · at Helmond Sport (A)2-2
- Apr 3 · at MVV Maastricht (A)3-1
- Mar 21 · v FC Den Bosch (H)2-3
- Mar 17 · at Almere City (A)2-2
- Mar 13 · v Jong AZ (H)2-1
FC Emmen
DrawLossLossDrawWin
- Apr 6 · v MVV Maastricht (H)2-1
- Apr 3 · at Vitesse (A)3-3
- Mar 28 · at FC Eindhoven (A)0-1
- Mar 24 · v SC Cambuur (H)2-4
- Mar 20 · v VVV-Venlo (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | RKC Waalwijk | FC Emmen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.