Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Oct 3 · 18:00 · RKC Waalwijk vs FC Emmen
Likeliest: RKC Waalwijk win · 48%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
RKC Waalwijk48%48%0
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
FC Emmen27%27%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 66% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RKC Waalwijk
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 26 · at Roda JC Kerkrade (A)0-2
- Sep 18 · v MVV Maastricht (H)6-1
- Sep 11 · at Jong Ajax (A)2-0
- Sep 4 · v NAC Breda (H)4-2
- Aug 28 · v Jong PSV Eindhoven (H)2-2
FC Emmen
LossWinLossLossWin
- Sep 26 · v TOP Oss (H)1-0
- Sep 18 · at FC Eindhoven (A)1-3
- Sep 11 · v De Graafschap (H)1-2
- Sep 4 · v FC Volendam (H)5-3
- Aug 30 · at VVV-Venlo (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | RKC Waalwijk | FC Emmen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.