Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Oct 18 · 10:15 · RKC Waalwijk vs FC Volendam
Likeliest: RKC Waalwijk win · 49%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
RKC Waalwijk49%49%0
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
FC Volendam27%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 64% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RKC Waalwijk
WinWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 9 · at Heracles Almelo (A)0-3
- Oct 3 · v FC Emmen (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Roda JC Kerkrade (A)0-2
- Sep 18 · v MVV Maastricht (H)6-1
- Sep 11 · at Jong Ajax (A)2-0
FC Volendam
WinLossWinLossWin
- Oct 9 · v Vitesse (H)2-0
- Oct 3 · at Almere City FC (A)0-1
- Sep 26 · v VVV-Venlo (H)3-2
- Sep 18 · at Jong AZ Alkmaar (A)1-4
- Sep 13 · v FC Den Bosch (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | RKC Waalwijk | FC Volendam |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.