Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Apr 24 · 18:00 · RKC Waalwijk vs Jong PSV
Likeliest: RKC Waalwijk win · 55%
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
RKC Waalwijk55%57%−2
OursMarket
Draw21%22%0
OursMarket
Jong PSV24%21%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 69% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 79% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 43% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 73% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RKC Waalwijk
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Apr 17 · at ADO Den Haag (A)1-5
- Apr 10 · v FC Emmen (H)5-0
- Apr 6 · at Helmond Sport (A)2-2
- Apr 3 · at MVV Maastricht (A)3-1
- Mar 21 · v FC Den Bosch (H)2-3
Jong PSV
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Apr 17 · v Jong Ajax (H)0-1
- Apr 13 · at Jong AZ (A)2-0
- Apr 6 · v VVV-Venlo (H)1-0
- Apr 3 · at Willem II (A)0-1
- Mar 20 · v Vitesse (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | RKC Waalwijk | Jong PSV |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.