Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Aug 28 · 18:00 · RKC Waalwijk vs Jong PSV Eindhoven
Likeliest: RKC Waalwijk win · 60%
A 60% home win. The market says 55%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
RKC Waalwijk60%55%+6
OursMarket
Draw20%22%−2
OursMarket
Jong PSV Eindhoven19%23%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 68% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 77% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 45% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 78% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 70% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RKC Waalwijk
LossWinDrawDrawDraw
- Aug 21 · at Helmond Sport (A)1-1
- Aug 14 · v FC Dordrecht (H)2-2
- Aug 7 · at Vitesse (A)1-1
- Apr 24 · v Jong PSV (H)4-1
- Apr 17 · at ADO Den Haag (A)1-5
Jong PSV Eindhoven
WinLossWin
- Aug 24 · v TOP Oss (H)1-0
- Aug 14 · at Almere City FC (A)1-3
- Aug 10 · v FC Volendam (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | RKC Waalwijk | Jong PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | — |
| Both teams scored | 90% | — |
| Clean sheets | 10% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.