Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Sep 18 · 18:00 · RKC Waalwijk vs MVV Maastricht
Likeliest: RKC Waalwijk win · 59%
A tight one: we make it 59% for the home win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
RKC Waalwijk59%58%+1
OursMarket
Draw21%22%−1
OursMarket
MVV Maastricht20%20%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 65% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 80% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 42% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
RKC Waalwijk
DrawDrawDrawWinWin
- Sep 11 · at Jong Ajax (A)2-0
- Sep 4 · v NAC Breda (H)4-2
- Aug 28 · v Jong PSV Eindhoven (H)2-2
- Aug 21 · at Helmond Sport (A)1-1
- Aug 14 · v FC Dordrecht (H)2-2
MVV Maastricht
WinWinWinDrawLoss
- Sep 11 · v Almere City FC (H)0-4
- Sep 6 · v Roda JC Kerkrade (H)1-1
- Aug 28 · at Jong AZ Alkmaar (A)2-1
- Aug 21 · v FC Volendam (H)1-0
- Aug 14 · at FC Eindhoven (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | RKC Waalwijk | MVV Maastricht |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.