3rd Division, Group 6 (Norway) · Sat, Oct 10 · 13:00 · Ørn-Horten vs Lillehammer
Likeliest: Lillehammer win · 72%
Likely score: 1–2
A 72% away win. The market says 67%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ørn-Horten11%15%−4
OursMarket
Draw17%18%−1
OursMarket
Lillehammer72%67%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 93% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 72% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 62% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 78% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 28% | 33% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 89% | 85% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 13% | 18% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 2.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ørn-Horten
LossDrawLossWinWin
- Oct 3 · at Brumunddal (A)4-0
- Sep 26 · v Fram Larvik (H)4-2
- Sep 19 · v Oppsal (H)0-2
- Sep 12 · at Sandefjord Fotball II (A)1-1
- Sep 7 · v Sarpsborg 08 II (H)3-4
Lillehammer
WinLossWinWinWin
- Oct 3 · v Oppsal (H)3-2
- Sep 26 · at Råde (A)5-1
- Sep 19 · v Bjoerkelangen (H)7-1
- Sep 12 · at Sarpsborg 08 II (A)1-3
- Sep 5 · v Raelingen FK (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Ørn-Horten | Lillehammer |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 3.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-0-3 | 3-0-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.