Football League Trophy (England) · Tue, Nov 3 · 19:00 · Rochdale vs Doncaster Rovers
Likeliest: Doncaster Rovers win · 52%
Likely scores: 1–1 13% · 0–1 11% · 0–2 10%
We make it 49% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rochdale23%26%−3
OursMarket
Draw26%25%0
OursMarket
Doncaster Rovers52%49%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 55% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 56% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 48% | 51% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 31% | 35% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rochdale
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 31 · at Port Vale (A)2-4
- Oct 24 · v Accrington Stanley (H)0-5
- Oct 20 · v Grimsby Town (H)2-2
- Oct 17 · at Crewe Alexandra (A)2-3
- Oct 10 · at Tranmere Rovers (A)1-1
Doncaster Rovers
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 31 · at Milton Keynes Dons (A)1-6
- Oct 27 · at Luton Town (A)1-3
- Oct 24 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)2-0
- Oct 20 · v Stockport County (H)0-2
- Oct 17 · at Leicester City (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Rochdale | Doncaster Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.