League Two (England) · Tue, Oct 20 · 18:45 · Rochdale vs Grimsby Town
Likeliest: Grimsby Town win · 46%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 46% for the away win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rochdale25%29%−4
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Grimsby Town46%44%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 57% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 40% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rochdale
WinWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · at Crewe Alexandra (A)2-3
- Oct 10 · at Tranmere Rovers (A)1-1
- Oct 6 · at Huddersfield Town (A)0-5
- Oct 3 · v Swindon Town (H)1-0
- Sep 26 · at Fleetwood Town (A)2-1
Grimsby Town
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 17 · v Northampton Town (H)0-2
- Oct 10 · at Port Vale (A)0-1
- Oct 6 · v Burton Albion (H)0-0
- Oct 3 · v Shrewsbury Town (H)1-2
- Sep 26 · at Newport County (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Rochdale | Grimsby Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.