Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Oct 9 · 18:00 · Roda JC Kerkrade vs Jong PSV Eindhoven
Likeliest: Roda JC Kerkrade win · 62%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 62% for the home win. The market says 60%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Roda JC Kerkrade62%60%+1
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Jong PSV Eindhoven17%18%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 40% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Roda JC Kerkrade
DrawWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 4 · at VVV-Venlo (A)0-2
- Sep 26 · v RKC Waalwijk (H)2-0
- Sep 18 · at Jong Ajax (A)0-0
- Sep 12 · v Vitesse (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at MVV Maastricht (A)1-1
Jong PSV Eindhoven
DrawWinLossDrawLoss
- Sep 19 · at Vitesse (A)1-3
- Sep 14 · v Jong AZ Alkmaar (H)1-1
- Sep 11 · at Helmond Sport (A)1-3
- Sep 7 · v FC Den Bosch (H)3-1
- Aug 31 · v Jong Ajax (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Roda JC Kerkrade | Jong PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 89% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 11% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.