Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Aug 28 · 18:00 · Roda JC Kerkrade vs NAC Breda
Likeliest: Roda JC Kerkrade win · 51%
A 51% home win. The market says 32%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Roda JC Kerkrade51%32%+19
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−1
OursMarket
NAC Breda24%42%−18
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 58% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 61% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 58% | +18 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 68% | −19 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 44% | +25 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Roda JC Kerkrade
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Aug 21 · at FC Dordrecht (A)1-0
- Aug 14 · v Helmond Sport (H)2-1
- Aug 7 · at FC Emmen (A)0-1
- Apr 24 · at Jong AZ (A)0-2
- Apr 17 · v FC Emmen (H)2-2
NAC Breda
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Aug 22 · v Jong Ajax (H)3-2
- Aug 14 · v VVV-Venlo (H)0-2
- Aug 7 · at TOP Oss (A)2-1
- May 17 · at AZ (A)3-3
- May 10 · v SC Heerenveen (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Roda JC Kerkrade | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.