Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Sep 26 · 18:00 · Roda JC Kerkrade vs RKC Waalwijk
Likeliest: Roda JC Kerkrade win · 36%
A tight one: we make it 36% for the home win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Roda JC Kerkrade36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
RKC Waalwijk36%36%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Roda JC Kerkrade
WinDrawDrawWinDraw
- Sep 18 · at Jong Ajax (A)0-0
- Sep 12 · v Vitesse (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at MVV Maastricht (A)1-1
- Aug 28 · v NAC Breda (H)2-2
- Aug 21 · at FC Dordrecht (A)1-0
RKC Waalwijk
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- Sep 18 · v MVV Maastricht (H)6-1
- Sep 11 · at Jong Ajax (A)2-0
- Sep 4 · v NAC Breda (H)4-2
- Aug 28 · v Jong PSV Eindhoven (H)2-2
- Aug 21 · at Helmond Sport (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Roda JC Kerkrade | RKC Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.