Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Mon, Apr 6 · 14:45 · Roda JC Kerkrade vs Willem II
Likeliest: Roda JC Kerkrade win · 39%
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Roda JC Kerkrade39%41%−2
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−2
OursMarket
Willem II38%34%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 61% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 63% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 66% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 55% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Roda JC Kerkrade
LossDrawLossDrawWin
- Apr 3 · at FC Dordrecht (A)3-0
- Mar 20 · v Helmond Sport (H)1-1
- Mar 16 · v Vitesse (H)0-1
- Mar 13 · at SC Cambuur (A)1-1
- Mar 6 · v Jong PSV (H)0-2
Willem II
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Apr 3 · v Jong PSV (H)1-0
- Mar 28 · v De Graafschap (H)0-2
- Mar 22 · at MVV Maastricht (A)5-0
- Mar 13 · at TOP Oss (A)3-1
- Mar 8 · v FC Den Bosch (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Roda JC Kerkrade | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-6 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.