Ligue 2 (France) · Fri, Sep 11 · 18:00 · Rodez AF vs Grenoble Foot 38
Likeliest: Rodez AF win · 56%
A tight one: we make it 56% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rodez AF56%55%+1
OursMarket
Draw26%26%+1
OursMarket
Grenoble Foot 3818%20%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 80% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 74% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rodez AF
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Sep 5 · at Metz (A)1-4
- Aug 28 · v Pau FC (H)2-2
- Aug 22 · at Nantes (A)5-2
- Aug 14 · at Annecy FC (A)0-2
- Aug 8 · v Stade Lavallois (H)3-1
Grenoble Foot 38
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- Sep 4 · v Annecy FC (H)1-2
- Aug 28 · at Stade Lavallois (A)3-0
- Aug 22 · at Saint-Étienne (A)0-4
- Aug 14 · v Metz (H)0-0
- Aug 8 · at USL Dunkerque (A)2-4
| Last 10 games | Rodez AF | Grenoble Foot 38 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-4-0 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.