Ligue 2 (France) · Mon, Oct 19 · 18:45 · Rodez AF vs Montpellier
Likeliest: Montpellier win · 38%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rodez AF31%34%−3
OursMarket
Draw32%30%+2
OursMarket
Montpellier38%37%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 48% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rodez AF
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 10 · at Saint-Étienne (A)0-2
- Sep 18 · v Nancy (H)3-4
- Sep 11 · v Grenoble Foot 38 (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · at Metz (A)1-4
- Aug 28 · v Pau FC (H)2-2
Montpellier
DrawLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 9 · v Grenoble Foot 38 (H)2-0
- Sep 18 · at Stade de Reims (A)1-1
- Sep 11 · v Pau FC (H)1-0
- Sep 5 · at Saint-Étienne (A)1-3
- Aug 28 · v US Boulogne Côte-d'Opale (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Rodez AF | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.