Ligue 2 (France) · Fri, Sep 18 · 18:00 · Rodez AF vs Nancy
Likeliest: Rodez AF win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rodez AF40%43%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Nancy30%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 57% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rodez AF
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Sep 11 · v Grenoble Foot 38 (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · at Metz (A)1-4
- Aug 28 · v Pau FC (H)2-2
- Aug 22 · at Nantes (A)5-2
- Aug 14 · at Annecy FC (A)0-2
Nancy
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Sep 11 · v Stade de Reims (H)1-2
- Sep 7 · at Nantes (A)0-1
- Aug 28 · v USL Dunkerque (H)2-0
- Aug 21 · at Pau FC (A)1-0
- Aug 14 · v Montpellier (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Rodez AF | Nancy |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 2-6-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.