Ligue 2 (France) · Fri, Aug 28 · 18:00 · Rodez AF vs Pau FC
Likeliest: Rodez AF win · 60%
We make it 65% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rodez AF60%52%+8
OursMarket
Draw20%25%−5
OursMarket
Pau FC20%22%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 54% | −19 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 78% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 48% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 75% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 70% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rodez AF
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Aug 22 · at Nantes (A)5-2
- Aug 14 · at Annecy FC (A)0-2
- Aug 8 · v Stade Lavallois (H)3-1
- May 15 · at Saint-Étienne (A)0-0
- May 12 · at Red Star (A)3-2
Pau FC
LossWinLoss
- Aug 21 · v Nancy (H)0-1
- Aug 14 · at Dijon (A)1-0
- Aug 8 · v Annecy FC (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Rodez AF | Pau FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | — |
| Both teams scored | 70% | — |
| Clean sheets | 20% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.