Ligue 2 (France) · Sat, May 2 · 18:00 · Rodez vs Saint-Étienne
Likeliest: Rodez win · 46%
A 46% home win. The market says 29%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rodez46%29%+16
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−1
OursMarket
Saint-Étienne30%45%−15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 58% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 62% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 55% | +15 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 71% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 39% | +21 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rodez
DrawDrawWinWinDraw
- Apr 24 · at Laval (A)0-0
- Apr 17 · v Amiens SC (H)3-2
- Apr 13 · v Troyes (H)2-1
- Apr 3 · at Dunkerque (A)1-1
- Mar 20 · v Bastia (H)1-1
Saint-Étienne
WinDrawWinLossLoss
- Apr 25 · v Troyes (H)0-3
- Apr 18 · at Bastia (A)0-2
- Apr 11 · v Dunkerque (H)2-1
- Apr 4 · at Nancy (A)1-1
- Mar 21 · v Annecy (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Rodez | Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-4-0 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-4-0 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.