Ligue 2 (France) · Mon, Apr 13 · 18:45 · Rodez vs Troyes
Likeliest: Troyes win · 40%
A 34% home win. The market says 27%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rodez34%27%+7
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−2
OursMarket
Troyes40%45%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 56% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 59% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 55% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 73% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 38% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rodez
DrawWinWinDrawDraw
- Apr 3 · at Dunkerque (A)1-1
- Mar 20 · v Bastia (H)1-1
- Mar 14 · at Reims (A)2-1
- Mar 6 · v Grenoble Foot 38 (H)1-0
- Feb 28 · at Guingamp (A)0-0
Troyes
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Apr 4 · at Montpellier (A)2-2
- Mar 21 · v Dunkerque (H)5-1
- Mar 16 · at Annecy (A)2-1
- Mar 7 · v Clermont (H)2-1
- Mar 2 · at Amiens SC (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Rodez | Troyes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-4-0 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.