Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Apr 18 · 18:45 · Roma vs Atalanta
Likeliest: Roma win · 47%
A 47% home win. The market says 38%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Roma47%38%+8
OursMarket
Draw27%29%−2
OursMarket
Atalanta27%32%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 49% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 54% | −9 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 68% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 62% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 54% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Roma
LossLossWinLossWin
- Apr 10 · v Pisa (H)3-0
- Apr 5 · at Inter (A)2-5
- Mar 22 · v Lecce (H)1-0
- Mar 19 · v Bologna (H)3-4
- Mar 15 · at Como (A)1-2
Atalanta
DrawLossWinWinLoss
- Apr 11 · v Juventus (H)0-1
- Apr 6 · at Lecce (A)3-0
- Mar 22 · v Hellas Verona (H)1-0
- Mar 18 · at FC Bayern München (A)1-4
- Mar 14 · at Inter (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Roma | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.