Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Sep 5 · 18:45 · Roma vs Atalanta
Likeliest: Roma win · 56%
A tight one: we make it 56% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Roma56%56%0
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Atalanta19%19%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 45% | 52% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 81% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 44% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 75% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Roma
WinWinWinWinWin
- Aug 31 · at Lecce (A)4-0
- Aug 24 · v Fiorentina (H)4-0
- May 24 · at Hellas Verona (A)2-0
- May 17 · v Lazio (H)2-0
- May 10 · at Parma (A)3-2
Atalanta
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- Aug 31 · v Bologna (H)1-0
- Aug 27 · at Hapoel Tel Aviv (A)1-0
- Aug 23 · v Sassuolo (H)2-1
- Aug 20 · v Hapoel Tel Aviv (H)0-0
- May 22 · at Fiorentina (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Roma | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.