Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Mar 19 · 20:00 · Roma vs Bologna
Likeliest: Roma win · 47%
A 28% away win. The market says 19%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Roma47%54%−8
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−1
OursMarket
Bologna28%19%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 44% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 47% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 81% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 46% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 74% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Roma
WinDrawLossDrawLoss
- Mar 15 · at Como (A)1-2
- Mar 12 · at Bologna (A)1-1
- Mar 8 · at Genoa (A)1-2
- Mar 1 · v Juventus (H)3-3
- Feb 22 · v Cremonese (H)3-0
Bologna
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Mar 15 · at Sassuolo (A)1-0
- Mar 12 · v Roma (H)1-1
- Mar 8 · v Hellas Verona (H)1-2
- Mar 2 · at Pisa (A)1-0
- Feb 26 · v Brann (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Roma | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.