Serie A (Italy) · Mon, Feb 9 · 19:45 · Roma vs Cagliari
Likeliest: Roma win · 59%
We make it 50% for both teams to score. The market says 43%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Roma59%64%−5
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Cagliari17%13%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 46% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 43% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 87% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 36% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 83% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Roma
WinWinDrawDrawLoss
- Feb 2 · at Udinese (A)0-1
- Jan 29 · at Panathinaikos (A)1-1
- Jan 25 · v AC Milan (H)1-1
- Jan 22 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)2-0
- Jan 18 · at Torino (A)2-0
Cagliari
DrawLossWinWinWin
- Jan 31 · v Hellas Verona (H)4-0
- Jan 24 · at Fiorentina (A)2-1
- Jan 17 · v Juventus (H)1-0
- Jan 12 · at Genoa (A)0-3
- Jan 8 · at Cremonese (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Roma | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.