Serie A (Italy) · Mon, Dec 15 · 19:45 · Roma vs Como
Likeliest: Roma win · 37%
We make it 70% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 57%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Roma37%43%−6
OursMarket
Draw33%30%+2
OursMarket
Como31%27%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 43% | −13 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 73% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 57% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 61% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Roma
WinWinLossLossWin
- Dec 11 · at Celtic (A)3-0
- Dec 7 · at Cagliari (A)0-1
- Nov 30 · v Napoli (H)0-1
- Nov 27 · v FC Midtjylland (H)2-1
- Nov 23 · at Cremonese (A)3-1
Como
DrawDrawWinWinLoss
- Dec 6 · at Inter (A)0-4
- Nov 28 · v Sassuolo (H)2-0
- Nov 24 · at Torino (A)5-1
- Nov 8 · v Cagliari (H)0-0
- Nov 1 · at Napoli (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Roma | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-5 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.