Serie A (Italy) · Mon, May 4 · 18:45 · Roma vs Fiorentina
Likeliest: Roma win · 52%
We make it 56% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 49%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Roma52%60%−8
OursMarket
Draw25%23%+1
OursMarket
Fiorentina24%17%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 51% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 83% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 40% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 78% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Roma
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Apr 25 · at Bologna (A)2-0
- Apr 18 · v Atalanta (H)1-1
- Apr 10 · v Pisa (H)3-0
- Apr 5 · at Inter (A)2-5
- Mar 22 · v Lecce (H)1-0
Fiorentina
LossWinWinDrawDraw
- Apr 26 · v Sassuolo (H)0-0
- Apr 20 · at Lecce (A)1-1
- Apr 16 · v Crystal Palace (H)2-1
- Apr 13 · v Lazio (H)1-0
- Apr 9 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Roma | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.