Serie A (Italy) · Mon, Aug 24 · 18:45 · Roma vs Fiorentina
Likeliest: Roma win · 65%
A 65% home win. The market says 59%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Roma65%59%+6
OursMarket
Draw21%24%−3
OursMarket
Fiorentina14%17%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 50% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 83% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 41% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 76% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 78% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Roma
WinWinWinWinWin
- May 24 · at Hellas Verona (A)2-0
- May 17 · v Lazio (H)2-0
- May 10 · at Parma (A)3-2
- May 4 · v Fiorentina (H)4-0
- Apr 25 · at Bologna (A)2-0
Fiorentina
LossDrawWinDrawWin
- Aug 14 · v Benevento (H)4-1
- May 22 · v Atalanta (H)1-1
- May 17 · at Juventus (A)2-0
- May 10 · v Genoa (H)0-0
- May 4 · at Roma (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | Roma | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.