Serie A (Italy) · Mon, Dec 29 · 19:45 · Roma vs Genoa
Likeliest: Roma win · 42%
A 29% away win. The market says 15%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Roma42%59%−16
OursMarket
Draw29%26%+2
OursMarket
Genoa29%15%+14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 41% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 42% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 85% | −14 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 41% | +16 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 79% | −20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Roma
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Dec 20 · at Juventus (A)1-2
- Dec 15 · v Como (H)1-0
- Dec 11 · at Celtic (A)3-0
- Dec 7 · at Cagliari (A)0-1
- Nov 30 · v Napoli (H)0-1
Genoa
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Dec 21 · v Atalanta (H)0-1
- Dec 14 · v Inter (H)1-2
- Dec 8 · at Udinese (A)2-1
- Dec 3 · at Atalanta (A)0-4
- Nov 29 · v Hellas Verona (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Roma | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-5 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.