Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Mar 1 · 19:45 · Roma vs Juventus
Likeliest: Roma win · 55%
A 55% home win. The market says 36%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Roma55%36%+19
OursMarket
Draw23%31%−8
OursMarket
Juventus22%33%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 41% | +16 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 49% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 67% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 64% | −19 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 69% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 52% | +19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Roma
DrawLossWinDrawWin
- Feb 22 · v Cremonese (H)3-0
- Feb 15 · at Napoli (A)2-2
- Feb 9 · v Cagliari (H)2-0
- Feb 2 · at Udinese (A)0-1
- Jan 29 · at Panathinaikos (A)1-1
Juventus
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Feb 25 · v Galatasaray (H)3-2
- Feb 21 · v Como (H)0-2
- Feb 17 · at Galatasaray (A)2-5
- Feb 14 · at Inter (A)2-3
- Feb 8 · v Lazio (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Roma | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.