Serie A (Italy) · Sun, May 17 · 10:30 · Roma vs Lazio
Likeliest: Roma win · 50%
A 23% away win. The market says 16%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Roma50%61%−12
OursMarket
Draw27%23%+4
OursMarket
Lazio23%16%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 50% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 41% | 48% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 84% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 39% | +12 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 77% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 79% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Roma
WinDrawWinWinWin
- May 10 · at Parma (A)3-2
- May 4 · v Fiorentina (H)4-0
- Apr 25 · at Bologna (A)2-0
- Apr 18 · v Atalanta (H)1-1
- Apr 10 · v Pisa (H)3-0
Lazio
DrawDrawWinLossLoss
- May 13 · v Inter (H)0-2
- May 9 · v Inter (H)0-3
- May 4 · at Cremonese (A)2-1
- Apr 27 · v Udinese (H)3-3
- Apr 22 · at Atalanta (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Roma | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.