Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Mar 22 · 17:00 · Roma vs Lecce
Likeliest: Roma win · 60%
We make it 49% for both teams to score. The market says 43%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Roma60%60%0
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
Lecce17%13%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 46% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 43% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 87% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 40% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 82% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Roma
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Mar 19 · v Bologna (H)3-4
- Mar 15 · at Como (A)1-2
- Mar 12 · at Bologna (A)1-1
- Mar 8 · at Genoa (A)1-2
- Mar 1 · v Juventus (H)3-3
Lecce
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Mar 14 · at Napoli (A)1-2
- Mar 8 · v Cremonese (H)2-1
- Feb 28 · at Como (A)1-3
- Feb 21 · v Inter (H)0-2
- Feb 16 · at Cagliari (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Roma | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.